Main takeaway: Analyst Adam says renewed BTC buying is a short-term stimulus and unlikely to change the long-term trend. He notes ETF flows are net outflows, Fed hawkishness and US‑Iran tensions hurt risk appetite, implied volatility fell, and BTC must clear $85k to avoid more selling pressure.
Greeks live 分析师 Adam 表示，Strategy 重启买入 BTC 更多属于短期刺激，难以改变长期走势；目前 ETF 资金整体仍偏流出，BTC 要站稳 8 万美元仍较困难。宏观层面，美联储鹰派表态及美伊冲突升级持续压制风险偏好。Adam 认为，近期隐含波动率快速回落，单日反弹不足以确认牛市恢复，BTC 若无法进一步突破 8.5 万美元，套利资金及期权卖方可能带来更大抛压，月底 Gamma Exposure（GEX）也正在积聚。