BTC has reclaimed $64K.
That's a 10% rebound from last week's $57.7K low, with nearly $100M in short positions liquidated.
So... is the bull market back?
Three leading analytics firms shared three different perspectives today:
📊 Glassnode: "Bottoming, but not there yet."
Bitcoin appears to be in the late stages of a bottoming process, but long-term holders are still capitulating. Daily realized losses have surged to around $280M, the highest since December 2022, and 43% of long-term holders are selling at a loss, compared with just 15% in February. More pain may be needed before a sustainable recovery.
📈 CryptoQuant: "Still a bear market rally."
Despite the 10% weekly bounce, their bull market score remains just 20/60. While July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, they don't yet see evidence of a full market regime change.
🚀 Bitwise: "The mildest bear market yet."
This cycle's drawdown has been around 50%, compared with 78% in 2022 and 84% in 2018. Market bottoms are becoming progressively higher, and institutional investors have shifted from asking whether crypto will survive to asking where they should enter.
Who's right?
Arguably, all three—they're simply looking at different time horizons.
• Glassnode: Short-term sentiment and capitulation.
• CryptoQuant: Medium-term market structure.
• Bitwise: Long-term market cycle.
My view:
• Short term: Stay patient. Don't chase sudden rallies.
• Medium term: Watch for capitulation to fade before turning aggressive.
• Long term: Higher cycle lows continue to support the broader bullish thesis.
Strategy: Don't try to perfectly time bottoms or chase tops. Stick to disciplined DCA and risk management.
With the Fear & Greed Index still hovering around 17–19 (Extreme Fear), it's likely neither the time to panic sell nor to deploy all your capital at once.
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